How Common is Lock Picking
We get this question a lot and when you try to research the topic its hard to find anything that isn’t just opinion or anecdotal evidence. It also is apparent that when ever the topic is discussed in a forum or reddit post the locksport community (those who pick locks as a hobby) always seem to pile on in the discussion about how rare it is in real life or how criminals kick in doors and break windows but don’t pick locks. Folks in lock sport enjoy their hobby and probably honestly believe that its not adding to crime. The only thing one can do is look at the actual data that is available and how it has changed over time.
Turning to the data there are two credible reports we have found, The older report used by many articles which tend towards the opinion that lock picking is rare was created by the US department of justice based on 2003 to 2007 data. In the table below it shows that 66.8% of household burglaries are done by forced entry and 33.2% of burglaries were non forced entry and that data is broken down as follows: The older data shows confirmed picked locks or windows (See red oval) accounts for 4.1% of the 33.2% of the crime or in about 1.36% of all cases, but if you include unknown, by other means and don't know that number jumps to 33.5% of the non forced entry or 11.1% of all break-ins. The later data taken from Victoria Australia in 2018 indicates that number has risen sharply and now sits closer to 36% of all break-ins which is discussed further down.
Turning to the data there are two credible reports we have found, The older report used by many articles which tend towards the opinion that lock picking is rare was created by the US department of justice based on 2003 to 2007 data. In the table below it shows that 66.8% of household burglaries are done by forced entry and 33.2% of burglaries were non forced entry and that data is broken down as follows: The older data shows confirmed picked locks or windows (See red oval) accounts for 4.1% of the 33.2% of the crime or in about 1.36% of all cases, but if you include unknown, by other means and don't know that number jumps to 33.5% of the non forced entry or 11.1% of all break-ins. The later data taken from Victoria Australia in 2018 indicates that number has risen sharply and now sits closer to 36% of all break-ins which is discussed further down.
This data most certainly is based on the police reports which is not a 100% accurate record of what took place. For example, “had a key” accounts for 7.9%. This could be keys that were made or copied in a lock sport fashion or just presumed by the police that the criminal must have had a key as there was no evidence of forced entry. Obviously, most of this number is probably related someone having taken or been previously given a key.
“Unknown means” accounts for another 5.3%. What does that mean? Certainly, a large portion of that could be lock manipulation like picking or bumping or racking or shimming the lock. These are all under the realm of “lock picking” in todays lexicon and since lock manipulation leaves no trace its often reported as unknown.
By other means and don’t know account for another 24.1%. how many of these could have been lock manipulation in one form or another?
And Lastly is the unlocked door or window category at 39.5%. In our own anecdotal experience with customers, this is the one that the police will often write down in the police report when they see no signs of forced entry. Especially back in 2003-2007. They will simply imply to the victim, “well is it possible you didn’t lock the door” and of course there is no way to prove that was not the case and it can be chalked up to that and that gets written in the police report for future statistics. Keep in mind security cameras on the home were not as prevalent in 2003-2007 as they are now and lock picking was not top of mind.
That adds up to a possible grand total of 80.9% of the 33.2% of all break ins or 26.8% potentially of all break ins in 2003-2007 that could be attributable to some form of lock picking or bypassing. Now of course it was not 26% but it was likely more than 1.36% as that seems to be absolutely confirmed cases. So really from this data all you can conclude is that somewhere between 1.36% to 26% of home break ins were caused by some form of lock manipulation back in 2003-2007. This Data only covers household burglaries.
Before the age of the internet.
Two major things happened after the 2003-2007 data was produced which could render that data irrelevant today in any interpretation.
The popularity of lock pickers posting online videos really began around 2010. The second is buying lock picks has become much easier on the internet from Ebay, Amazon and Ali-Express and direct from manufacturers online stores. Around 2010 many start up lock pick companies focused on the lock sport market began to appear and grow.
Today we have huge lock picking channels on YouTube, TikTok and Instagram show casing how to pick a lock and then selling you the tool you need to do it. And a lot of the products being sold are less about lock sport (actually lock picking) and more about covert entry such as by-pass tools, skeleton keys, comb picks, lock shims, latch shims and key casting kits. None of those items are really in the “lock sport” category and are more in the professional lock smith tools or covert entry tools category as they take little to no skill and as such provide no sport. They also have almost no role in the legal activities outside those performed in the lock smith trade. These tools are very cool and handy in rare circumstances, but they also can be used for illegal purposes for which applications are far more abundant. A lot of folks now have a set of lock picks in there tool box as it may come in handy. It boggles the mind that those same folks think it unlikely a criminal is not doing the same.
However the horse has left the barn, lock picking is a large hobby, it is legal, its popular and selling these tools is a viable business for many companies. This hobby, the youtubers and these tools have done everyone a favor by showcasing how bad many of the security products being sold are, but for the vast majority of the public who think lock picking is a special skill that requires hard to get expensive tools need look no further than youtube to get an education on how wrong that is.
The newer data that we are aware of that seems to paint a different picture and was published on 2018 statistics in Victoria, Australia and though it is not the US or Canada it is probably close enough to use as an appropriate proxy. The actual date can be found by clicking this link.
www.crimestatistics.vic.gov.au/spotlight-burglarybreak-and-enter-offences-recorded-in-victoria
This first chart notes the time of day these offenses are believed to have occurred.
“Unknown means” accounts for another 5.3%. What does that mean? Certainly, a large portion of that could be lock manipulation like picking or bumping or racking or shimming the lock. These are all under the realm of “lock picking” in todays lexicon and since lock manipulation leaves no trace its often reported as unknown.
By other means and don’t know account for another 24.1%. how many of these could have been lock manipulation in one form or another?
And Lastly is the unlocked door or window category at 39.5%. In our own anecdotal experience with customers, this is the one that the police will often write down in the police report when they see no signs of forced entry. Especially back in 2003-2007. They will simply imply to the victim, “well is it possible you didn’t lock the door” and of course there is no way to prove that was not the case and it can be chalked up to that and that gets written in the police report for future statistics. Keep in mind security cameras on the home were not as prevalent in 2003-2007 as they are now and lock picking was not top of mind.
That adds up to a possible grand total of 80.9% of the 33.2% of all break ins or 26.8% potentially of all break ins in 2003-2007 that could be attributable to some form of lock picking or bypassing. Now of course it was not 26% but it was likely more than 1.36% as that seems to be absolutely confirmed cases. So really from this data all you can conclude is that somewhere between 1.36% to 26% of home break ins were caused by some form of lock manipulation back in 2003-2007. This Data only covers household burglaries.
Before the age of the internet.
Two major things happened after the 2003-2007 data was produced which could render that data irrelevant today in any interpretation.
The popularity of lock pickers posting online videos really began around 2010. The second is buying lock picks has become much easier on the internet from Ebay, Amazon and Ali-Express and direct from manufacturers online stores. Around 2010 many start up lock pick companies focused on the lock sport market began to appear and grow.
Today we have huge lock picking channels on YouTube, TikTok and Instagram show casing how to pick a lock and then selling you the tool you need to do it. And a lot of the products being sold are less about lock sport (actually lock picking) and more about covert entry such as by-pass tools, skeleton keys, comb picks, lock shims, latch shims and key casting kits. None of those items are really in the “lock sport” category and are more in the professional lock smith tools or covert entry tools category as they take little to no skill and as such provide no sport. They also have almost no role in the legal activities outside those performed in the lock smith trade. These tools are very cool and handy in rare circumstances, but they also can be used for illegal purposes for which applications are far more abundant. A lot of folks now have a set of lock picks in there tool box as it may come in handy. It boggles the mind that those same folks think it unlikely a criminal is not doing the same.
However the horse has left the barn, lock picking is a large hobby, it is legal, its popular and selling these tools is a viable business for many companies. This hobby, the youtubers and these tools have done everyone a favor by showcasing how bad many of the security products being sold are, but for the vast majority of the public who think lock picking is a special skill that requires hard to get expensive tools need look no further than youtube to get an education on how wrong that is.
The newer data that we are aware of that seems to paint a different picture and was published on 2018 statistics in Victoria, Australia and though it is not the US or Canada it is probably close enough to use as an appropriate proxy. The actual date can be found by clicking this link.
www.crimestatistics.vic.gov.au/spotlight-burglarybreak-and-enter-offences-recorded-in-victoria
This first chart notes the time of day these offenses are believed to have occurred.
This next table shows that the door and unknown account for over 46% of break ins.
This table shows that if you consider no sign of forced entry, other, and unknown, then lock picking could account for as much as 36% of all break ins. If you add in unlocked or open door it could be as high as 50%. Although open doors were likely actually open in most of those cases.
This chart shows that no signs of forced entry other and unknown account for 36% of residential break in’s
This chart shows the tools used. Nil visible force, Jimmy and other account for 66% of all tools used. How many were lock picks or lock by passing tools?
We are simply in a different paradigm than we were in the 90’s and 2000’s where locks were just as weak and easy to pick but the knowledge and tools were rare enough that it really didn’t pose a large threat. Today is a different story. Today I think we have a lot of people with the tools and the knowledge with bad intentions. I would go so far as to say if you are a real thief who plans your theft with any caution it would foolish and unreasonable to think lock picking would not be in your arsenal of things to try.
Let’s take the example that a thief gets into a storage facility and has access to hundreds of units with common locks. It would be least risky to rake, comb, shim, bump or pick a lock open vs cutting it off with large bolt cutters or an angle grinder. If one lock doesn’t open just walk to the next. Its likely that 50% or more of the locks in a common storage facility could be easily raked, shimmed, combed or bumped with out drawing any attention so really picking has become a crime of opportunity in itself. If you get seen by someone it can appear you’re just struggling with your key. If your already in the storage container it appears you are the owner of the unit as the lock is just opened hanging on the hasp. You lock it back up when you leave.
This is also not a claim that a good lock will prevent all thefts or break ins. It is certainly true that if a criminal wants to get in, a lock will not stop them. However, it does mean they will have to resort to physical force and in many situations that is the deterrent. A theft doesn’t want to draw attention and doesn’t want to get caught so it’s a calculation on the opportunity, the risk and the reward.
Lastly this is by no means a statement that everyone needs Bowley locks on everything. There are many good high security locks that reduce the likelihood of the lock being picked to almost zero. Assa Aboy, Medeco and others make great locks as well. And I think it is true that no criminals will take the time to try to pick locks that are known to be very difficult. But it is really time to stop buying basic pin timber locks from the hardware store unless it is for a very low security application like a fence gate or shed with an old lawn mower.
I hope this information helps to inform people of the prevalence of lock picking in todays world, and it is certainly worth considering that it happens more than you might currently think. Many of our customers buy from us because this just happened to them or someone close to them and it suddenly became very apparent to them that it is a problem.
Bowley Lock Company Inc.
Let’s take the example that a thief gets into a storage facility and has access to hundreds of units with common locks. It would be least risky to rake, comb, shim, bump or pick a lock open vs cutting it off with large bolt cutters or an angle grinder. If one lock doesn’t open just walk to the next. Its likely that 50% or more of the locks in a common storage facility could be easily raked, shimmed, combed or bumped with out drawing any attention so really picking has become a crime of opportunity in itself. If you get seen by someone it can appear you’re just struggling with your key. If your already in the storage container it appears you are the owner of the unit as the lock is just opened hanging on the hasp. You lock it back up when you leave.
This is also not a claim that a good lock will prevent all thefts or break ins. It is certainly true that if a criminal wants to get in, a lock will not stop them. However, it does mean they will have to resort to physical force and in many situations that is the deterrent. A theft doesn’t want to draw attention and doesn’t want to get caught so it’s a calculation on the opportunity, the risk and the reward.
Lastly this is by no means a statement that everyone needs Bowley locks on everything. There are many good high security locks that reduce the likelihood of the lock being picked to almost zero. Assa Aboy, Medeco and others make great locks as well. And I think it is true that no criminals will take the time to try to pick locks that are known to be very difficult. But it is really time to stop buying basic pin timber locks from the hardware store unless it is for a very low security application like a fence gate or shed with an old lawn mower.
I hope this information helps to inform people of the prevalence of lock picking in todays world, and it is certainly worth considering that it happens more than you might currently think. Many of our customers buy from us because this just happened to them or someone close to them and it suddenly became very apparent to them that it is a problem.
Bowley Lock Company Inc.